Yesterday, I spoke with
the CIO of the Xerox pension fund, Carol McFate. We were preparing for our ai5000 conference and an interview in the coming weeks,
and she made what might have been the understatement of the day: “There is
still a lot of uncertainty in markets.”
This was at 12:03 (EST).
The market began its decline around 3:00. A bit of luck on Carol’s part, but
the fact remains – each day, still,
we are only hours away from collapse.
The reasons for this
uncertainty are varied, just as the reasons for yesterday’s Dow Jones
ride-from-hell was. Besides the apparent technical glitch and the accompanying
halt in trading of Proctor & Gamble stock, there is one fear that has been
in the newspapers nearly every day this year: Greek debt.
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In June of last year, we
wrote on the impending collapse of Dubai’s various sovereign wealth entities.
When Dubai finally hit the wall in late November, all eyes turned towards the
next potential default, which conventional wisdom said was Greece. Five months,
riots, parliamentary votes, and an unhealthy dose of brinksmanship later, it
seems like Europe is on the precipice of bailing out one of its own.
The question, however,
is whether any bailout and corresponding austerity measures in Greece will calm
world markets. Frankly, I see no reason why this alone would. When Dubai went
under, markets went looking for the next potential victim. They will likely do
the same now. The remaining PIIGS – Portugal, Ireland, Italy, and Spain – will
come under even more scrutiny, and this merry-go-round will start all over
again.
How will it end? I have
no idea – and anybody who tells you they do is lying. I suspect that if the
European Union succeeds in bailing out Greece, they will be forced to do the
same for all their members – especially if they want the EU and the Euro (which
also took a beating yesterday) to be in existence in a year. I suspect that
until solid growth figures return to Europe and America, and unemployment rates
are lowered, such fears will continue (this is not a controversial opinion).
The solution (more controversial), then, in my eyes– and this will surely
offend Tea Party-ers everywhere – is continued government involvement to
provide cheap capital and a safety net of sorts. There are always issues with
the inefficiencies of government intervention, yes, but I suspect that the opposite
– no government involvement at all, letting the markets fend for, and devour,
themselves – would, for now, be much, much worse.
If you disagree, think
of the alternative. Imagine if governments from across the globe raised
interest rates and stopped supporting faltering institutions and countries that
were deemed ‘too big to fail’. Available capital, scarce as it is, would likely
dry up once more; business’ would be strangled of their lifeblood; hiring would
cease. If growth is the way out of this cycle of uncertainty, then it seems to
follow that a government withdrawal from markets is not the answer. Cheap
capital provided by the government does not entirely stop market uncertainty –
but the alternative, in theory, seems much worse.
As I write this, America’s
April unemployment numbers creep across the television screen. Almost 290,000
new jobs were created in April, but with more people beginning to look for
work, unemployment was up 0.2%, to 9.9%. Carol McFate is right – these are
uncertain times still. Act accordingly.